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Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Ningbo Professional

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.0%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.4%1-111.0%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.6%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 50.0% 2.00 -15.2%

Draw 23.2% 32.3% 3.10 -16.9%

Away win 34.4% 30.3% 3.30 +13.5%

Over 2.5 60.0% 52.6% 1.90 +14.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 30.8% 3.25 +20.6%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 46.7% 50.0% 2.00 -6.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 33.3% 3.00 +26.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.6

Ningbo Professional1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.60

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.9%

Ningbo Professional (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Ningbo Professional in China - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Ningbo Professional 34%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Changchun Yatai and 1.5 for Ningbo Professional (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Ningbo Professional. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%.

Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions