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Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

UPCOMING

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.1%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 41.7% 2.40 -12.4%

Draw 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

Away win 38.0% 38.2% 2.62 -0.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.1%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuxi Wugou1.3

Yanbian Longding1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.29

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wuxi Wugou (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -12.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.0%

Yanbian Longding (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuxi Wugou face Yanbian Longding in China - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuxi Wugou a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Yanbian Longding 38%, so Yanbian Longding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wuxi Wugou and 1.2 for Yanbian Longding (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuxi Wugou are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.70 for Yanbian Longding. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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