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Shenzhen Juniors vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Shenzhen Juniors

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

UPCOMING

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-19.5%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.4%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 15.1% 15.4% 6.50 -1.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 42.0% 2.38 -24.6%

BTTS 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 69.4% 1.44 -19.7%

Away O1.5 18.9% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.1%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen Juniors2.0

Meizhou Kejia0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN JUNIORS · PPG 1.90

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.00

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen Juniors (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -12.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Meizhou Kejia (A) 15.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen Juniors face Meizhou Kejia in China - League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen Juniors a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Meizhou Kejia 15%, so Shenzhen Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Shenzhen Juniors and 0.7 for Meizhou Kejia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen Juniors are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Meizhou Kejia. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Shenzhen Juniors vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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