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Dongguan United vs Dalian Huayi Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Dongguan United

PPG 0.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Dalian Huayi

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.6%0-27.3%0-34.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.1%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 24.4% 4.10 +12.1%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Away win 47.3% 58.8% 1.70 -19.6%

Over 2.5 60.8% 57.1% 1.75 +6.4%

Over 3.5 37.8% 36.4% 2.75 +4.0%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dongguan United1.3

Dalian Huayi1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 0.18

DALIAN HUAYI · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dongguan United (H) 29.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Dalian Huayi (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dongguan United face Dalian Huayi in China - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dongguan United a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Dalian Huayi 47%, so Dalian Huayi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dongguan United and 1.7 for Dalian Huayi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dongguan United are averaging 0.18 points per game versus 0.67 for Dalian Huayi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Dongguan United vs Dalian Huayi Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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