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Inverness vs Kelty Hearts Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Inverness

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kelty Hearts

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.1% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-11.5%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.6%1-14.5%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.2%2-16.4%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.7%3-16.2%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-021.5%4+-19.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.1% 83.3% 1.20 +4.5%

Draw 9.7% 17.4% 5.75 -44.2%

Away win 3.2% 9.1% 11.00 -64.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 67.6% 1.48 -5.0%

Over 3.5 42.2% 45.5% 2.20 -7.2%

BTTS 32.5% 50.0% 2.00 -35.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob32.5%

H 87% / xG 2.9-0.4 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 3–0 14.7%

#3 4–0 10.6%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inverness2.9

Kelty Hearts0.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INVERNESS · PPG 2.31

KELTY HEARTS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inverness (H) 87.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 9.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -44.2%

Kelty Hearts (A) 3.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -64.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inverness face Kelty Hearts in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inverness a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Kelty Hearts 3%, so Inverness are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Inverness and 0.4 for Kelty Hearts (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inverness are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.00 for Kelty Hearts. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Inverness vs Kelty Hearts Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions