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Stirling vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Stirling

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Balcatta

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 86.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+17.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.1%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.9%1-13.8%1-22.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.0%2-16.6%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-17.6%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-116.0%4+-210.6%4+-34.7%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 64.5% 1.55 -5.9%

Draw 19.6% 23.1% 4.33 -9.1%

Away win 19.7% 23.8% 4.20 -10.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 73.5% 1.36 -1.1%

Over 3.5 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 86.0% 73.5% 1.36 +17.0%

Away O1.5 38.2% 42.0% 2.38 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.4%

H 61% / xG 3.5-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 7.6%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling3.5

Balcatta1.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING · PPG 1.00

BALCATTA · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Stirling (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -5.9%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.1%

Balcatta (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Balcatta 20%, so Stirling are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Stirling and 1.3 for Balcatta (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Stirling vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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