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Sorrento vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.3%0-28.9%0-35.7%0-4+4.2%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.0%2-15.7%2-25.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.2% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 56.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.4% — — —

Away O1.5 57.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.0%

A 56% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.1

Bayswater1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 1.00

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayswater (A) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Bayswater 56%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sorrento and 1.9 for Bayswater (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Bayswater. This match finished 1-2.

Sorrento vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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