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Fremantle City vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.7%0-25.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.7%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 42.3% — — —

Over 2.5 65.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.9% — — —

Away O1.5 57.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.4%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2✓ 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City1.6

Perth RedStar1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.40

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Perth RedStar (A) 42.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Perth RedStar 42%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fremantle City and 1.9 for Perth RedStar (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Perth RedStar. This match finished 2-2.

Fremantle City vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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