Today / Scotland - League One / Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir

Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Cove Rangers

PPG 0.94 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Stenhousemuir

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-117.4%0-210.2%0-34.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.0%2-14.7%2-22.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 31.3% 3.20 -26.4%

Draw 30.6% 30.3% 3.30 +1.0%

Away win 46.4% 48.8% 2.05 -4.9%

Over 2.5 29.9% 51.3% 1.95 -41.7%

Over 3.5 12.7% 29.0% 3.45 -56.2%

BTTS 36.0% 57.8% 1.73 -37.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob36.0%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–2 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cove Rangers0.7

Stenhousemuir1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COVE RANGERS · PPG 0.94

STENHOUSEMUIR · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Cove Rangers (H) 23.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -26.4%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.0%

Stenhousemuir (A) 46.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cove Rangers face Stenhousemuir in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cove Rangers a 23% chance, the draw 31% and Stenhousemuir 46%, so Stenhousemuir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Cove Rangers and 1.2 for Stenhousemuir (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cove Rangers are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.69 for Stenhousemuir. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions