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Gold C. Knights vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.5%1-27.6%1-34.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.9%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 47.6% 2.10 -14.7%

Draw 22.9% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

Away win 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

Over 2.5 65.8% 70.4% 1.42 -6.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 48.8% 2.05 -11.7%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 56.8% 59.9% 1.67 -5.1%

Away O1.5 53.4% 51.8% 1.93 +3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights1.9

Eastern Suburbs1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.00

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.5%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Eastern Suburbs 37%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gold C. Knights and 1.8 for Eastern Suburbs (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Eastern Suburbs. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Gold C. Knights vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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