Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Glenorchy K. vs Launceston

Glenorchy K. vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 06:45

Glenorchy K.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Launceston

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 78.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+29.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.3%0-23.3%0-33.2%0-4+4.7%1 1-01.5%1-14.4%1-26.4%1-36.2%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-24.1%3-33.9%3-4+5.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.1%4+-23.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 43.5% 2.30 -19.0%

Draw 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -11.6%

Away win 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

BTTS 65.9% 80.0% 1.25 -17.6%

Home O1.5 57.9% 63.7% 1.57 -9.1%

Away O1.5 78.5% 60.6% 1.65 +29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob65.9%

A 44% / xG 1.9-2.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 6.4%

#2 2–2 6.3%

#3 1–3 6.2%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy K.1.9

Launceston2.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 2.00

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy K. (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.6%

Launceston (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy K. face Launceston in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy K. a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Launceston 44%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Glenorchy K. and 2.9 for Launceston (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy K. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Launceston. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +59.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Glenorchy K. vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Tasmania NPL Predictions