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Maitland vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 06:30

Maitland

PPG 0.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.4%0-23.1%0-32.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-01.9%1-15.0%1-26.5%1-35.6%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.0%2-15.2%2-26.8%2-35.9%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.4%3-13.6%3-24.7%3-34.1%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.1%4+-24.0%4+-33.5%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 41.7% 2.40 -17.4%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Away win 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 75.2% 1.33 -3.3%

Over 3.5 54.6% 56.8% 1.76 -3.9%

BTTS 65.9% 76.9% 1.30 -14.3%

Home O1.5 61.9% 60.6% 1.65 +2.1%

Away O1.5 73.3% 62.1% 1.61 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob65.9%

A 44% / xG 2.1-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.5%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland2.1

Belmont Swansea2.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 0.60

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 34.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Belmont Swansea (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 34% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 45%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Maitland and 2.6 for Belmont Swansea (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Maitland vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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