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Alloa Athletic vs East Fife Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

East Fife

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+29.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.2%1-17.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.8%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-16.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 58.8% 1.70 +29.5%

Draw 15.8% 27.8% 3.60 -43.1%

Away win 7.9% 23.8% 4.20 -66.8%

Over 2.5 56.6% 60.6% 1.65 -6.6%

Over 3.5 34.3% 38.5% 2.60 -10.8%

BTTS 41.4% 63.7% 1.57 -35.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.4%

H 76% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.3%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alloa Athletic2.3

East Fife0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.69

EAST FIFE · PPG 0.81

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.69), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alloa Athletic (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +29.5%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -43.1%

East Fife (A) 7.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -66.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alloa Athletic face East Fife in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alloa Athletic a 76% chance, the draw 16% and East Fife 8%, so Alloa Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Alloa Athletic and 0.6 for East Fife (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alloa Athletic are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.81 for East Fife. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Alloa Athletic vs East Fife Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions