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Australia - Queensland NPL Saturday, May 30, 2026 05:00 
Gold C. Utd PPG 3.00 
Peninsula PPG 1.75
Australia - Queensland NPL Saturday, May 30, 2026 05:00 Gold C. Utd PPG 3.000-4 MISS
Peninsula PPG 1.75Home + Over 2.5· +89.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 65.8% Odds: 1.38 -9.2%
Over 3.5 43.1% Odds: 1.95 -16.0%
BTTS 63.4% Odds: 1.42 -10.0%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-2 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Gold C. Utd 2.03
Peninsula 1.84
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -9.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -9.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home + Over 2.5 (+89.1%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home + Over 2.5 (+89.1%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 6 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 67%
O2.5/Under 100%
BTTS/No 67%
Score Hit 33%
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=42.3%