Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Devonport vs Ulverstone

Devonport vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 98.2% vs bookmaker-implied 96.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.9%1-10.5%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-02.6%2-11.5%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.1%3-12.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-047.6%4+-127.3%4+-27.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.5% 98.0% 1.02 -20.9%

Draw 15.6% 10.9% 9.20 +26.1%

Away win 7.0% 3.4% 29.00 +61.8%

Over 2.5 80.0% 96.2% 1.04 -16.8%

Over 3.5 60.8% 80.6% 1.24 -24.6%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 98.2% 96.2% 1.04 +2.1%

Away O1.5 11.3% 10.5% 9.50 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)6.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 78% / xG 6.0-0.6 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.1%

#2 4–0 7.7%

#3 5–1 5.2%

#4 3–0 5.1%

#5 4–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport6.0

Ulverstone0.6

COMBINED 6.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 3.00

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 77.5%

ODDS 1.02 · IMPLIED 98.0% EV -20.9%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +26.1%

Ulverstone (A) 7.0%

ODDS 29.00 · IMPLIED 3.4% EV +61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face Ulverstone in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 78% chance, the draw 16% and Ulverstone 7%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.0 for Devonport and 0.6 for Ulverstone (6.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +61.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Devonport vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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