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South Hobart vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.0%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.3%1-10.2%1-20.0%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-01.2%2-10.6%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-055.1%4+-128.6%4+-27.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.8% 97.1% 1.03 -10.6%

Draw 6.3% 6.7% 15.00 -3.3%

Away win 6.9% 0.8% 126.00 +461.6%

Over 2.5 82.5% 99.0% 1.01 -16.7%

Over 3.5 69.0% 89.3% 1.12 -22.7%

BTTS 47.2% 40.8% 2.45 +15.6%

Home O1.5 99.4% — — —

Away O1.5 9.6% 9.3% 10.70 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)7.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 87% / xG 7.2-0.5 / O2.5 82% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 7.3%

#2 4–0 5.1%

#3 5–1 3.8%

#4 3–0 2.8%

#5 4–1✓ 2.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart7.2

Launceston Utd0.5

COMBINED 7.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.5% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 86.8%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -10.6%

Draw 6.3%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV -3.3%

Launceston Utd (A) 6.9%

ODDS 126.00 · IMPLIED 0.8% EV +461.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Launceston Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 87% chance, the draw 6% and Launceston Utd 7%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 7.2 for South Hobart and 0.5 for Launceston Utd (7.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Launceston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +461.6%. This match finished 4-1.

South Hobart vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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