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Ross County vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Ross County

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.5%0-26.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.6%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.7%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 45.9% 2.18 -21.5%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 35.6% 31.3% 3.20 +13.9%

Over 2.5 40.4% 45.5% 2.20 -11.1%

Over 3.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -15.6%

BTTS 46.7% 54.1% 1.85 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.7%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ross County1.2

Ayr Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSS COUNTY · PPG 0.94

AYR UTD · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

47%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.94) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ross County (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -21.5%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Ayr Utd (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ross County face Ayr Utd in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ross County a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Ayr Utd 36%, so Ross County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ross County and 1.1 for Ayr Utd (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ross County are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.25 for Ayr Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Ross County vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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