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Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Inverness CT

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDL ·

UPCOMING

Raith Rovers

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.1%0-26.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.9%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Draw 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Away win 34.2% 34.5% 2.90 -0.8%

Over 2.5 41.2% 48.1% 2.08 -14.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inverness CT1.0

Raith Rovers0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INVERNESS CT · PPG 1.36

RAITH ROVERS · PPG 1.19

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Inverness CT (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.3%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Raith Rovers (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inverness CT face Raith Rovers in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inverness CT a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Raith Rovers 34%, so Inverness CT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Inverness CT and 0.9 for Raith Rovers (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inverness CT are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.19 for Raith Rovers.

Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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