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Ayr Utd vs Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Morton

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.2%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 58.5% 1.71 -13.5%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 23.0% 22.5% 4.45 +1.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.1% 1.85 -25.8%

Away O1.5 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1✓ 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ayr Utd1.5

Morton0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AYR UTD · PPG 1.51

MORTON · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ayr Utd (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Morton (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayr Utd face Morton in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayr Utd a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Morton 23%, so Ayr Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ayr Utd and 0.9 for Morton (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayr Utd are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.89 for Morton. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Ayr Utd vs Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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