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Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:30

Dunfermline

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Raith Rovers

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-112.2%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 40.8% 2.45 -11.1%

Draw 27.7% 29.9% 3.35 -4.3%

Away win 36.0% 38.2% 2.62 -5.7%

Over 2.5 43.4% 52.6% 1.90 -17.5%

Over 3.5 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

BTTS 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 43.5% 2.30 -28.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 1–0✓ 12.8%

#4 0–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunfermline1.1

Raith Rovers1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNFERMLINE · PPG 1.38

RAITH ROVERS · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dunfermline (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.3%

Raith Rovers (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunfermline face Raith Rovers in Scotland - Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunfermline a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Raith Rovers 36%, so Dunfermline are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dunfermline and 1.1 for Raith Rovers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunfermline are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.39 for Raith Rovers. This match finished 1-0.

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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