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Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Raith Rovers

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.0%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 51.5% 1.94 -12.7%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -7.7%

Away win 28.6% 27.4% 3.65 +2.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +3.0%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 29.4% 3.40 +21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0✓ 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raith Rovers1.5

Ayr Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RAITH ROVERS · PPG 1.51

AYR UTD · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Raith Rovers (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -12.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.7%

Ayr Utd (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raith Rovers face Ayr Utd in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raith Rovers a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Ayr Utd 29%, so Raith Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Raith Rovers and 1.1 for Ayr Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raith Rovers are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.21 for Ayr Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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