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Arbroath vs Dunfermline Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Arbroath

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

UPCOMING

Dunfermline

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-111.3%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 38.5% 2.60 +14.7%

Draw 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Away win 25.2% 37.0% 2.70 -19.2%

Over 2.5 39.7% 46.5% 2.15 -14.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

Home O1.5 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Away O1.5 23.8% 38.2% 2.62 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arbroath1.2

Dunfermline0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARBROATH · PPG 1.77

DUNFERMLINE · PPG 1.16

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arbroath (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +14.7%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

Dunfermline (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arbroath face Dunfermline in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arbroath a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Dunfermline 25%, so Arbroath are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arbroath and 0.8 for Dunfermline (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arbroath are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.16 for Dunfermline. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Arbroath vs Dunfermline Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions