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Livingston vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

Livingston

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

UPCOMING

Stenhousemuir

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.4%0-25.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-17.3%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 73.5% 1.36 -50.8%

Draw 27.9% 23.8% 4.20 +10.3%

Away win 35.9% 12.1% 8.25 +196.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 58.8% 1.70 -27.4%

Over 3.5 20.9% 36.4% 2.75 -25.5%

BTTS 48.0% 52.6% 1.90 -8.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 67.6% 1.48 -54.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 21.1% 4.75 +14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 36% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livingston1.1

Stenhousemuir0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVINGSTON · PPG 1.93

STENHOUSEMUIR · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Livingston (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -50.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.3%

Stenhousemuir (A) 35.9%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +196.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Livingston face Stenhousemuir in Scotland - Championship on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livingston a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Stenhousemuir 36%, so Livingston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Livingston and 0.9 for Stenhousemuir (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livingston are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.64 for Stenhousemuir. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +70.3%.

Livingston vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions