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Partick vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Partick

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDD ·

UPCOMING

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLD ·

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.3%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.2%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 63.7% 1.57 -18.2%

Draw 26.3% 26.3% 3.80 -0.0%

Away win 21.5% 20.0% 5.00 +4.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 21.8% 33.3% 3.00 -20.8%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 55.6% 1.80 -28.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Partick1.4

Ayr Utd0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PARTICK · PPG 2.03

AYR UTD · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Partick (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.0%

Ayr Utd (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Partick face Ayr Utd in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Partick a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Ayr Utd 22%, so Partick are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Partick and 0.7 for Ayr Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Partick are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 1.03 for Ayr Utd.

Partick vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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