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Queen's Park vs Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Queen's Park

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

UPCOMING

Morton

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.0%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.0%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 42.0% 2.38 -1.2%

Draw 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Away win 30.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 48.8% 2.05 -8.8%

Over 3.5 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

BTTS 49.9% 57.1% 1.75 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

Away O1.5 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queen's Park1.2

Morton1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEEN'S PARK · PPG 0.94

MORTON · PPG 0.90

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Queen's Park (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -1.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Morton (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queen's Park face Morton in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queen's Park a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Morton 30%, so Queen's Park are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Queen's Park and 1.0 for Morton (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queen's Park are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.90 for Morton.

Queen's Park vs Morton Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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