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Morton vs Arbroath Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Morton

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Arbroath

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-113.8%0-26.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.6%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 32.8% 3.05 +9.5%

Draw 34.4% 30.3% 3.30 +13.5%

Away win 29.7% 45.9% 2.18 -21.1%

Over 2.5 34.5% 47.6% 2.10 -27.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

BTTS 43.6% 55.6% 1.80 -21.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.9% 2.95 -9.7%

Away O1.5 22.8% 43.5% 2.30 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.6%

D 34% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Morton1.0

Arbroath0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MORTON · PPG 1.13

ARBROATH · PPG 1.04

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Morton (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +13.5%

Arbroath (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Morton face Arbroath in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Morton a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Arbroath 30%, so Morton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Morton and 0.9 for Arbroath (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Morton are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.04 for Arbroath. This match finished 1-2.

Morton vs Arbroath Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions