Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Hafnarfjordur vs IA Akranes

Hafnarfjordur vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 19:15

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IA Akranes

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.4%0-23.0%0-32.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-02.0%1-15.1%1-26.4%1-35.4%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.6%3-13.9%3-24.9%3-34.1%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.5%4+-24.4%4+-33.7%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 38.5% 2.60 -8.5%

Draw 20.8% 26.0% 3.85 -11.9%

Away win 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 2.5 72.7% 72.5% 1.38 +0.3%

Over 3.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

BTTS 65.9% 75.2% 1.33 -12.3%

Home O1.5 63.3% 55.6% 1.80 +13.9%

Away O1.5 71.5% 59.9% 1.67 +19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob65.9%

A 44% / xG 2.1-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.4%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 2–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur2.1

IA Akranes2.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.00

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.9%

IA Akranes (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face IA Akranes in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 35% chance, the draw 21% and IA Akranes 44%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hafnarfjordur and 2.5 for IA Akranes (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.40 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hafnarfjordur vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions