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Shamrock Rovers vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Patricks

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.5%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.2%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 43.9% 2.28 -8.8%

Draw 29.4% 30.8% 3.25 -2.7%

Away win 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 27.7% 26.3% 3.80 +3.2%

BTTS 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Home O1.5 35.6% 42.6% 2.35 -16.3%

Away O1.5 26.7% 34.5% 2.90 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0✓ 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.3

St. Patricks1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.44

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=40.0%

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -8.8%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.7%

St. Patricks (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 40% chance, the draw 29% and St. Patricks 31%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shamrock Rovers and 1.0 for St. Patricks (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.44 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Shamrock Rovers vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions