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UC Dublin vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

UC Dublin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Athlone Town

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.2%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.8%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 56.2% 1.78 -9.6%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Away win 24.3% 23.3% 4.30 +2.7%

Over 2.5 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.35 +6.2%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Away O1.5 16.8% 29.0% 3.45 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UC Dublin1.6

Athlone Town0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UC DUBLIN · PPG 2.00

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.8%

Win probability 1X2

UC Dublin (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

Athlone Town (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

UC Dublin face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UC Dublin a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Athlone Town 24%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UC Dublin and 0.7 for Athlone Town (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UC Dublin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 1-0.

UC Dublin vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions