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Greenock Morton vs Queens Park Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Greenock Morton

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Queens Park

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.2%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 48.1% 2.08 +6.3%

Draw 26.1% 30.3% 3.30 -13.9%

Away win 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -25.9%

Over 2.5 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

Over 3.5 22.3% 32.3% 3.10 -30.9%

BTTS 46.3% 59.9% 1.67 -22.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.3%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenock Morton1.5

Queens Park0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENOCK MORTON · PPG 1.31

QUEENS PARK · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Greenock Morton (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +6.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.9%

Queens Park (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenock Morton face Queens Park in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenock Morton a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Queens Park 23%, so Greenock Morton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Greenock Morton and 0.9 for Queens Park (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenock Morton are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Queens Park. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Greenock Morton vs Queens Park Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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