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Longford Town vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Longford Town

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-112.7%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-16.6%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 46.7% 2.14 -16.8%

Draw 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

Away win 27.9% 29.0% 3.45 -2.3%

Over 2.5 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -17.6%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 27.3% 44.4% 2.25 -23.2%

Away O1.5 16.9% 32.3% 3.10 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.0

Treaty Utd0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.38

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=38.9%

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -16.8%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +6.2%

Treaty Utd (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Treaty Utd 28%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Longford Town and 0.7 for Treaty Utd (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Longford Town vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions