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Cork City vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.63 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Finn Harps

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.8%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-19.3%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-19.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.8%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% 76.9% 1.30 -18.4%

Draw 21.4% 20.4% 4.90 +2.9%

Away win 15.8% 9.8% 10.25 +37.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 30.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.2%

BTTS 47.2% 51.8% 1.93 -8.9%

Home O1.5 57.7% 71.4% 1.40 -19.2%

Away O1.5 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City1.9

Finn Harps0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.63

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs P(Home)=62.8%

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 62.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -18.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +2.9%

Finn Harps (A) 15.8%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Finn Harps 16%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cork City and 0.6 for Finn Harps (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 0.63 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Cork City vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions