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Bray Wanderers vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wexford

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.7%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.0% 2.22 +9.2%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 26.4% 32.8% 3.05 -11.7%

Over 2.5 60.1% 57.1% 1.75 +5.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 35.7% 2.80 +1.4%

BTTS 61.0% 63.7% 1.57 -4.2%

Home O1.5 47.8% 50.0% 2.00 -4.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 41.7% 2.40 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers1.6

Wexford1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.00

WEXFORD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.2%

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Wexford (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Wexford 26%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bray Wanderers and 1.2 for Wexford (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Bray Wanderers vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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