Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 60.1% Odds: 1.75 +5.2%
Over 3.5 36.2% Odds: 2.80 +1.4%
BTTS 61.0% Odds: 1.57 -4.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Model Suggestion
BTTS -4.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.2%