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Shelbourne vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Galway Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.1%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.1%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 57.5% 1.74 -23.6%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 31.2% 22.7% 4.40 +37.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

BTTS 61.0% 58.8% 1.70 +3.7%

Home O1.5 47.1% 56.5% 1.77 -16.6%

Away O1.5 40.5% 31.3% 3.20 +29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.0%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.6

Galway Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.78

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -23.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Galway Utd (A) 31.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Galway Utd 31%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shelbourne and 1.4 for Galway Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Shelbourne vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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