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Dundalk vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 19 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derry City

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 43.1% 2.32 +2.8%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 27.9% 34.2% 2.92 -11.1%

Over 2.5 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Away O1.5 27.5% 40.8% 2.45 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1✓ 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk1.4

Derry City1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 1.89

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +2.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Derry City (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Derry City 28%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundalk and 1.0 for Derry City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Dundalk vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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