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Drogheda Utd vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 19 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waterford

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 54.3% 1.84 -1.4%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

BTTS 55.3% 59.9% 1.67 -7.6%

Home O1.5 55.6% 54.6% 1.83 +1.8%

Away O1.5 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.9

Waterford1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.33

WATERFORD · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -1.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Waterford (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Waterford 24%, so Drogheda Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Drogheda Utd and 1.0 for Waterford (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.11 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Drogheda Utd vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions