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Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Arbroath

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Raith Rovers

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 39.7% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.6%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.3%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.8%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 39.7% 2.52 +30.5%

Draw 27.0% 33.8% 2.96 -20.1%

Away win 21.1% 35.7% 2.80 -40.9%

Over 2.5 38.7% 38.5% 2.60 +0.6%

Over 3.5 18.8% 19.0% 5.25 -1.3%

BTTS 42.1% 47.6% 2.10 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.1%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arbroath1.4

Raith Rovers0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARBROATH · PPG 1.75

RAITH ROVERS · PPG 0.94

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

Arbroath (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +30.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -20.1%

Raith Rovers (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -40.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arbroath face Raith Rovers in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arbroath a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Raith Rovers 21%, so Arbroath are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arbroath and 0.8 for Raith Rovers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arbroath are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.94 for Raith Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions