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Kremser vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 33 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:30

Kremser

PPG 2.07 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Donau

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.8%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.8%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.8%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 61.7% 1.62 -9.1%

Draw 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Away win 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Over 2.5 63.3% 62.5% 1.60 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.5% 41.5% 2.41 -4.8%

BTTS 56.1% 62.1% 1.61 -9.7%

Home O1.5 60.5% 64.9% 1.54 -6.8%

Away O1.5 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kremser2.0

Donau1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KREMSER · PPG 2.07

DONAU · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Kremser (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Donau (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kremser face Donau in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kremser a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Donau 21%, so Kremser are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kremser and 1.0 for Donau (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kremser are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.20 for Donau. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 5-1.

Kremser vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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