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Airdrieonians vs Partick Thistle Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Airdrieonians

PPG 0.81 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Partick Thistle

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-113.8%0-28.9%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.1%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.8%2-16.2%2-24.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 26.0% 3.85 +5.1%

Draw 28.3% 28.2% 3.55 +0.5%

Away win 44.4% 54.9% 1.82 -19.2%

Over 2.5 38.5% 58.8% 1.70 -34.5%

Over 3.5 18.7% 36.4% 2.75 -48.6%

BTTS 44.2% 62.5% 1.60 -29.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob44.2%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Airdrieonians0.9

Partick Thistle1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AIRDRIEONIANS · PPG 0.81

PARTICK THISTLE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Airdrieonians (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +5.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.5%

Partick Thistle (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Airdrieonians face Partick Thistle in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Airdrieonians a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Partick Thistle 44%, so Partick Thistle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Airdrieonians and 1.3 for Partick Thistle (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Airdrieonians are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.38 for Partick Thistle. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Airdrieonians vs Partick Thistle Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions