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Orgryte vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Orgryte

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Elfsborg

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Away 55% chance

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-113.7%0-212.7%0-37.9%0-4+5.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.1%2-13.9%2-23.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 27.0% 3.70 -21.8%

Draw 23.3% 27.0% 3.70 -8.3%

Away win 59.4% 52.6% 1.90 +12.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

BTTS 51.5% 59.9% 1.67 -14.0%

Home O1.5 17.4% 34.5% 2.90 -29.7%

Away O1.5 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.5%

A 59% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte0.8

Elfsborg1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE · PPG 0.67

ELFSBORG · PPG 1.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte (H) 17.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -21.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.3%

Elfsborg (A) 59.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte face Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Elfsborg 59%, so Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Orgryte and 1.9 for Elfsborg (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Orgryte vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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