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Valerenga vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kristiansund

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.9%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 64.5% 1.55 -36.4%

Draw 29.7% 23.1% 4.33 +17.2%

Away win 29.3% 19.2% 5.20 +31.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 66.7% 1.50 -30.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 44.4% 2.25 -22.6%

BTTS 51.6% 64.5% 1.55 -20.0%

Home O1.5 34.4% 67.6% 1.48 -49.1%

Away O1.5 27.0% 33.9% 2.95 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga1.2

Kristiansund1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.40

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 41.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -36.4%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +17.2%

Kristiansund (A) 29.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Kristiansund in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Kristiansund 29%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valerenga and 1.0 for Kristiansund (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Kristiansund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Valerenga vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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