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Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 65% chance

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-110.5%0-211.8%0-38.9%0-4+8.5%1 1-03.8%1-18.5%1-29.6%1-37.2%1-4+6.9%2 2-01.5%2-13.5%2-23.9%2-32.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 20.0% 5.00 -19.8%

Draw 20.8% 22.7% 4.40 -5.1%

Away win 65.8% 64.5% 1.55 +2.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

BTTS 54.0% 67.6% 1.48 -20.1%

Home O1.5 19.6% 37.0% 2.70 -28.2%

Away O1.5 65.8% 70.4% 1.42 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.0%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg0.8

Bodo/Glimt2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.40

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 13.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -19.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.1%

Bodo/Glimt (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Bodo/Glimt in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Bodo/Glimt 66%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rosenborg and 2.3 for Bodo/Glimt (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Bodo/Glimt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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