Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Fredrikstad vs Start

Fredrikstad vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Fredrikstad

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Start

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 62% chance

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.6%1-24.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-18.3%4+-25.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 56.5% 1.77 +0.7%

Draw 21.5% 26.0% 3.85 -10.3%

Away win 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Over 2.5 65.8% 60.6% 1.65 +8.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 37.7% 2.65 +14.2%

BTTS 63.4% 62.5% 1.60 +1.4%

Home O1.5 70.1% 58.8% 1.70 +19.2%

Away O1.5 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.4%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad2.4

Start1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 1.75

START · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +0.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.3%

Start (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face Start in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Start 22%, so Fredrikstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Fredrikstad and 1.2 for Start (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.17 for Start. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Fredrikstad vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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