Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Rustavi vs Spaeri

Rustavi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Spaeri

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-110.9%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.4%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-18.0%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 54.1% 1.85 -21.6%

Draw 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

Away win 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 34.3% 50.0% 2.00 -31.4%

Away O1.5 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.2

Spaeri0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.14

SPAERI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=42.4%

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.6%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.2%

Spaeri (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Spaeri 28%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rustavi and 0.9 for Spaeri (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.33 for Spaeri. This match finished 2-1.

Rustavi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions