Today / Finland - Ykkönen / TPV vs Tampere Utd

TPV vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:00

TPV

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Tampere Utd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-111.1%0-212.8%0-39.8%0-4+9.7%1 1-03.5%1-18.1%1-29.3%1-37.2%1-4+7.1%2 2-01.3%2-13.0%2-23.4%2-32.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 27.0% 3.70 -30.3%

Draw 20.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.3%

Away win 65.8% 55.6% 1.80 +18.4%

Over 2.5 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Over 3.5 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

BTTS 52.0% 69.4% 1.44 -25.1%

Home O1.5 16.7% 38.2% 2.62 -33.8%

Away O1.5 67.0% 61.7% 1.62 +8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob52.0%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 0–3✓ 9.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV0.7

Tampere Utd2.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.25

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 13.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -30.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.3%

Tampere Utd (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face Tampere Utd in Finland - Ykkönen on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Tampere Utd 66%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for TPV and 2.3 for Tampere Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Tampere Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 0-3.

TPV vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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