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PKKU vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:30

PKKU

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.2%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Over 2.5 60.1% 73.5% 1.36 -18.3%

Over 3.5 36.2% 54.6% 1.83 -33.8%

BTTS 55.3% 71.4% 1.40 -22.6%

Home O1.5 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Away O1.5 25.0% 42.0% 2.38 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU2.2

KuPS Ak.1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.33

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

KuPS Ak. (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkönen on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 56% chance, the draw 23% and KuPS Ak. 21%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for PKKU and 1.0 for KuPS Ak. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.33 for KuPS Ak.. This match finished 3-0.

PKKU vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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