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Rudes vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:30

Rudes

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Sesvete

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-113.0%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-16.8%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 57.1% 1.75 -23.9%

Draw 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 26.5% 22.7% 4.40 +10.0%

Over 2.5 43.2% 42.0% 2.38 +2.8%

Over 3.5 22.8% 23.1% 4.33 -0.8%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 27.3% 47.6% 2.10 -25.6%

Away O1.5 20.7% 21.3% 4.70 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudes1.0

Sesvete0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDES · PPG 2.25

SESVETE · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Rudes (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.9%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Sesvete (A) 26.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudes face Sesvete in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudes a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Sesvete 27%, so Rudes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Rudes and 0.8 for Sesvete (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudes are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.71 for Sesvete. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Rudes vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions