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Opatija vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:30

Opatija

PPG 1.47 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Karlovac

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.0%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.5%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 57.1% 1.75 -23.9%

Draw 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -4.1%

Away win 27.4% 25.0% 4.00 +5.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.2% 3.42 -3.2%

BTTS 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Home O1.5 30.7% 52.4% 1.91 -41.4%

Away O1.5 24.3% 27.3% 3.66 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Opatija1.1

Karlovac0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OPATIJA · PPG 1.47

KARLOVAC · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Opatija (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.9%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.1%

Karlovac (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Opatija face Karlovac in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Opatija a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Karlovac 27%, so Opatija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Opatija and 0.9 for Karlovac (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Opatija are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.73 for Karlovac. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Opatija vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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