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Dila Gori vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:00

Dila Gori

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Samgurali

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-111.8%0-24.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-16.8%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 55.6% 1.80 -26.0%

Draw 33.5% 33.3% 3.00 +0.5%

Away win 25.4% 25.0% 4.00 +1.0%

Over 2.5 33.8% 48.8% 2.05 -30.7%

Over 3.5 18.6% 27.8% 3.60 -19.8%

BTTS 45.5% 52.4% 1.91 -13.1%

Home O1.5 28.9% 51.3% 1.95 -26.2%

Away O1.5 14.9% 27.4% 3.65 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dila Gori1.1

Samgurali0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DILA GORI · PPG 1.14

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Dila Gori (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -26.0%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.5%

Samgurali (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dila Gori face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dila Gori a 41% chance, the draw 34% and Samgurali 25%, so Dila Gori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dila Gori and 0.7 for Samgurali (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dila Gori are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Dila Gori vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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