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Guangdong GZP vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong GZP

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Shenzhen J.

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.6%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.5%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 55.6% 1.80 -35.0%

Draw 22.4% 29.0% 3.45 -13.6%

Away win 41.4% 25.6% 3.90 +61.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 57.1% 1.75 +12.2%

Over 3.5 40.3% 35.1% 2.85 +14.9%

BTTS 61.0% 60.6% 1.65 +0.7%

Home O1.5 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Away O1.5 46.6% 34.5% 2.90 +35.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.0%

H 36% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0✓ 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong GZP1.6

Shenzhen J.1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 2.40

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 2.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.40), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong GZP (H) 36.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -35.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.6%

Shenzhen J. (A) 41.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +61.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong GZP face Shenzhen J. in China - League One on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong GZP a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Shenzhen J. 41%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Guangdong GZP and 1.6 for Shenzhen J. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong GZP are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.40 for Shenzhen J.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Guangdong GZP vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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